Shooting Craps with College Athletes

Welcome to the weekend that’s based on 20% skill and 80% luck. The NFL Draft is here for another year filled with NFL execs shooting the dice on college players and hoping they roll a 7. With first round busts and seventh round gems, the NFL Draft is one of the most unpredictable events on sports, the other being the MLB Draft which I hear lasts an incredible 50 rounds (and people think the game can sometimes be boring). Besides the unpredictability of the draft, it still remains a tense yet exciting weekend where die hard football fans should at least watch the first two rounds. My favorite part is when the commissioner says those five magic words, “There has been a trade”. I’m going to do my best to analyze what each team needs and throw in a few possible picks they can select in the first round. I’m deciding not to project the draft because it is so unpredictable and it would be a waste of time to do so. The selection of a player is a lot more complex than just choosing a player based on their talent and the team’s needs; a lot of politics and money is involved in these decisions. Let’s begin the breakdown by first round draft pick.

Oakland Raiders
Possible Picks: QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, WR Calvin Johnson, OT Joe Thomas
The Oakland Raiders can pick any offensive player with the number one over all pick, that’s how bad their offense is. In fact, I think the Raiders should use at least 9 of their 10 picks this year on offensive players. Their defense was ranked third in the entire league. The big debate with the Raiders is whether they should draft QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, or the best player in the draft, WR Calvin Johnson. Honestly, I can’t see anything wrong with either of these picks but I will tell you this; no matter what quarterback they select, with the current offensive line, Peyton Manning couldn’t achieve greatness. They can go with the quarterback in the first round but if they do, they MUST use their next two picks on offensive linemen otherwise Russell or Quinn will turn into the next David Carr.

Detroit Lions
Possible Picks: QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, DE Gaines Adams, CB Leon Hall, DT Amobi Okoye, WR Calvin Johnson
The Detroit Lions have holes to fill in both their offense and defense. Starting with their quarterback and on down to their 28th ranked defense, the Lions need a lot of help. With Jon Kitna as the starting quarterback, the Lions can definitely use this year to make up for their Joey Harrington pick in 2002. They can also draft a cornerback with the loss of Dre Bly to the Broncos in the off-season. A defensive tackle, defensive end, or linebacker pick would be smart as well. Don’t be surprised if they pursue Calvin Johnson which would be their fourth wide receiver selection in the past five years.

Cleveland Browns
Possible Picks: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Joe Thomas, S LaRon Landry, DE Gaines Adams, CB Leon Hall
Another team with a quarterback need is the Browns, who also desperately need help at a lot of other positions including offensive tackle, running back, defensive end, safety and cornerback. I think the Browns should eschew their pick for quarterback in the first round and go with another need. Going with hometown hero QB Troy Smith (who I think has unfairly dropped in draft status) in the third or fourth round would be a better decision. Running back Adrian Peterson would be an attractive pick for them which would allow them to switch to a two running back system along with newly acquired Jamal Lewis.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Possible Picks: WR Calvin Johnson, DT Amobi Okoye, S LaRon Landry, DE Gaines Adams
If I was a Bucs fan and they drafted a quarterback in the first round I would throw a brick on my television; they have more options for quarterback than the Lions do for wide receiver. To compliment their excessive options for quarterback, the Buccaneers should draft Calvin Johnson with the first no-brainer of the draft. If he’s taken by this time they should go with either a defensive tackle or safety to revamp their once great defense which has slipped to 17th overall in the league.

Arizona Cardinals
Possible Picks: S LaRon Landry, DE Gaines Adams, CB Leon Hall, DT Amobi Okoye
The Cardinals have a promising offense that should be complimented by a better defense which is now ranked 29th in the league. They do have some offensive tackle issues but I don’t know whether they should take one in the first round with the amount of holes in the defense. I would select the best available defensive player with this pick no matter what position he plays (that’s how bad their defense is).

Washington Redskins
Possible Picks: DE Gaines Adams, DT Amobi Okoye, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson
The Redskins’ weakness comes in their defensive line which caused them to be the second worst defense in the league; they can’t pressure a quarterback if he had chicken wings attached to his body. A defensive tackle or defensive end pick would be ideal in the first round.

Minnesota Vikings
Possible Picks: TE Greg Olsen, WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Dwayne Jarrett
Pop quiz: Who is the starting quarterback for the Vikings? Give up? It’s Tarvaris Jackson. Exactly, they need a quarterback. If Brady Quinn is available by this point it would be a no-brainer but I don’t think he will be available. Concentrating on other needs, although the Vikings were ranked 8th in total defense, they still have holes to fill in their line. I do however think they should think offensive with their first pick going with either a wide receiver or tight end. Their later round draft picks should concentrate on a QB in either Drew Stanton or Trent Edwards.

Atlanta Falcons
Possible Picks: DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
The perfect scenario for the Falcons would be to trade up to get Calvin Johnson so Michael Vick has no more excuses. However, since the world isn’t perfect, the Falcons should fill their giant hole in the defensive end slot with the departure of Patrick Kerney.

Miami Dolphins
Possible Picks: QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, OT Levi Brown, OT Joe Staley
The Dolphins have huge quarterback issues which they are trying to resolve by acquiring Trent Green from the Chiefs. If they get that need addressed, they should think offensive line to help out their future quarterback and future star running back Ronnie Brown. If they don’t get that need addressed, they should trade up to acquire either JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn.

Houston Texans
Possible Picks: CB Leon Hall, DT Amobi Okoye, CB Darrelle Revis, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
Houston is another team that needs to think defensively with the current teams in their division (Colts, Jaguars, and Titans). Being in the same boat as the Cardinals, they should draft the best defensive player available.

San Francisco 49ers
Possible Picks: WR Dwayne Bowe, WR Ted Ginn Jr., CB Darrelle Revis, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
The 49ers are in the same situation as the Cardinals and Texans as far as their defense is concerned. Going with a wide receiver would be a consideration as quarterback Alex Smith matures.

Buffalo Bills
Possible Picks: RB Michael Bush, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Antonio Pittman, LB Patrick Willis, LB Lawrence Timmons
The Bills have had a horrible off-season letting go of LB London Fletcher and RB Willis McGahee. Pursuing a running back and a few linebackers this year is necessary. I would go with a now healthy RB Michael Bush who everyone has seem to forgotten since he was injured in September.

St. Louis Rams
Possible Picks: CB Darrelle Revis, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
The Rams need all the help they can get on defense. Going after a defensive line or secondary is what will most likely happen in the first round.

Carolina Panthers
Possible Picks: OT Joe Staley, TE Greg Olsen
It’s no question that the panthers need help on the offensive line as quarterback Jake Delhomme was sacked 22 times in 2006. This need should be addressed in the first round. A tight end would also help Delhomme out because Michael Gaines is certainly not going to cut it.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Possible Picks: LB Lawrence Timmons, LB Paul Posluszny
Picking out a need for the Steelers is quite easy with the departure of Joey Porter; they need a linebacker.

Green Bay Packers
Possible Picks: RB Michael Bush, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Antonio Pittman, WR Dwayne Bowe, WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Robert Meachem
Picking out a need for the Packers is equally as easy as running back Ahman Green has left for Houston. A wide receiver wouldn’t hurt either.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Possible Picks: S Reggie Nelson, S Michael Griffin
The Jaguars seem to be set with a lot of their players. Their defense is ranked second in the league and they have a lot of weapons on the offense, if only their quarterbacks can use them well. Safety would be the way to go if I were general manager.

Cincinnati Bengals
Possible Picks: DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker, DE Jarvis Moss, LB Lawrence Timmons
Sorry, I’m fresh out of Cincinnattica Bengals jokes these days. All you really have to do is mention their defense and that would be enough for a laugh as they are ranked 30th in the league. I would concentrate on the front lines of the defense even though they do need secondary help as well.

Tennessee Titans
Possible Picks: CB Darrelle Revis, CB Aaron Ross
Worst ranked defense in the league and they lose Pacman Jones to a one-year suspension. Hmm… I’m having a hard time figuring out what the Titans are in need of.

New York Giants
Possible Picks: LB Lawrence Timmons, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Darrelle Revis, CB Aaron Ross
In 2006-2007, the Giants went from having a monster defense with a great set of linebackers, to losing players to injury and eight of their last ten regular season games, to releasing quality linebackers LaVar Arrington and Carlos Emmons. I think it’s obvious to go linebacker here. If not linebacker, a secondary pick would be useful.

Denver Broncos
Possible Picks: DE Jarvis Moss, LB Lawrence Timmons, LB Paul Posluszny, LB David Harris, DT Justin Harrell
The Broncos look like they’re set on offense. As far as the defense is concerned, I see holes in their defensive line and line backing core. They’ve filled their need for cornerback after the tragic death of Darrent Williams with the acquisition of Dre Bly.

Dallas Cowboys
Possible Picks: CB Aaron Ross, CB Chris Houston
The Cowboys addressed their safety issues by acquiring Ken Hamlin. They need another cornerback and defensive end. A cornerback selection is the way to go as their passing defensive was ranked 24th in the league and was a major cause for the loss of three out of the last four regular season games to lose the NFC East which was supposed to be pretty much locked up.

Kansas City Chiefs
Possible Picks: WR Robert Meachem, WR Dwayne Jarrett, OT Joe Staley, OT Tony Ugoh
The move the Chiefs made by sending wide receiver Dante Hall to St. Louis narrows down their biggest need in the first round. They can also go along the path of building up their offensive line which performed horribly in the playoffs against the Colts.

New England Patriots
Possible Picks: RB Marshawn Lnych, RB Antonio Pittman, RB Kenny Irons
Picking out a need for the Patriots is pretty difficult because they had such a great off-season signing LB Adalius Thomas and WR Donte Stallworth. I’m assuming the Patriots will get a deal done with CB Asante Samuel so they won’t have a big need at that position. They did release RB Corey Dillon, so they might want a backup for Laurence Maroney. Any other pick would be strictly for insurance.

New York Jets
Possible Picks: DE Jarvis Moss, DE Anthony Spencer, DT Justin Harrell, OT Tony Ugoh, OT Marshal Yanda
The Jets have recently switched to a 3-4 defense, which means the constant need for better defensive linemen. They did need a running back, but they handled that situation with the signing of Thomas Jones. To protect him, they should look to better offensive linemen as well.

Philadelphia Eagles
Possible Picks: WR Robert Meachem, WR Dwayne Jarrett, WR Sidney Rice, S Michael Griffin, S Brandon Meriweather
The Eagles’ needs are quite simple; more reliable targets for Donovan McNabb. They also lost S Michael Lewis which can be another option for them.

New Orleans Saints
Possible Picks: S Brandon Meriweather, S Eric Weddle
The Saints offense is dominant; they need to match the talent of their offense with the talent of their defense. I would go safety with this pick as they lost two this off-season in the free agency market.

Baltimore Ravens
Possible Picks: LB Paul Posluszny, LB Jon Beason, LB David Harris, LB Buster Davis
The Ravens’ job is clear; with the loss of linebacker Adalius Thomas, they have to find talent to replace him.

San Diego Chargers
Possible Picks: WR Dwayne Jarrett, WR Sidney Rice, WR Steve Smith
The Chargers’ top wide receivers are Eric Parker and Vincent Jackson. They need more targets and better targets for quarterback Philip Rivers.

Chicago Bears
Possible Picks: LB Jon Beason, LB David Harris, LB Buster Davis, LB Stewart Bradley
The Bears have a huge problem with LB Lance Briggs. Either they’re going to have to end up trading him or he’s going to sit out ten games. Either way, they need to find a replacement.

Indianapolis Colts
Possible Picks: DE Anthony Spencer, DE LaMarr Woodley, DT Justin Harrell, DT Alan Branch
The Colts are a hard team to figure out. They were dead last in stopping the run during the regular season but in the playoffs they stopped running back Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis. Maybe the defensive line got better or maybe they were more motivated. Either way, I wouldn’t risk it, I’d build up my line.

Seattle Seahawks
Possible Picks: G Ben Grubbs, G Arron Sears, OT Tony Ugoh, OT Marshal Yanda, TE Zach Miller
The bad news for Seattle is that they are the only team without a first round pick. The good news is that they don’t have many needs. I would go for a little protection for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and running back Shaun Alexander in either an offensive lineman or tight end.

Sources: ESPN.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com

Sports Moment of the Week

Alex Rodriguez's walk-off homerun against Cleveland last Thursday. The Yankees were down 6-2 in the bottom of the 9th inning with 2 outs before they sparked a rally to win the game 8-6. This is Alex Rodriguez's second walk-off homerun this season.