Let’s skip the introduction and jump right in here. I’m only going to concentrate on who I believe can potential contend this year. And this year it seems as if the entire league can contend which should make for an exciting and unpredictable season.Starting with the American League and the New York Yankees which I have the most knowledge of being a fan and all; the Yankees suffered last season due to starting pitching and timely hitting. In the off-season they fixed one of these problems by signing Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa. They also decided not to trade Carl Pavano giving them a little more depth. If starting pitching struggles in the first half of the season look for the Yankees to make a blockbuster trade by July which can include the likes of Dontrelle Willis. Top pitching prospects Philip Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, and Jeff Karstens can also step in if injuries occur. The bullpen can use improvement but closer Mariano Rivera is always reliable. With arguably the best lineup in all of baseball, the Yankees look like a lock to win their division. The problem is not the regular season but rather the playoffs. Players must come up with hits and move runners around the bases. If they can continue their regular season performance in the postseason, they will be very hard to stop.
The Boston Red Sox seem like the only other team that can contend with the Yankees in the AL East. Their rotation has dramatically improved since last year. The signing of Daisuke Matsuzaka was huge and look for Jon Lester to have an incredible season after undergoing chemotherapy last season, kind of looks like a potential Lance Armstrong story. The lineup, which was not necessarily a problem last season, is slightly better with the signings of Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. I see Josh Beckett and Coco Crisp having great comeback seasons. The biggest problem I have with the Red Sox is their bullpen, which is exactly why they finished third place last season. The Red Sox improved their bullpen this season by signing… NO ONE… With the current bullpen they have I don’t see them in the postseason this year.
The AL Central is the most unpredictable division seeing how they have four potential contenders. The Detroit Tigers look the strongest not only because they haven’t gotten rid of anyone but they added the key element that they were missing, a power hitter in Gary Sheffield. This team will be very dangerous this season due to the good hitters in Sheffield, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Ivan Rodriguez. Their lineup seems a little older which doesn’t necessarily mean anything this year but it can mean a sharp decline in incoming years if players are not replaced. The Tigers also have a great rotation with Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson. The bullpen is also very good but there can be issues in closing games out with closer Todd Jones. This team also plays great defense which can kill any lineup along with their pitching.
The Cleveland Indians look like a great comeback team this season. They have great batters in Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez and great starters in C.C. Sabathia and Jeremy Sowers. The rest of the starting rotation looks okay along with their bullpen. They do have some insurance in starting pitching prospect Adam Miller who can help out midseason if other guys struggle.
The Minnesota Twins are another team with a great batting lineup. The problem is their only proven starting pitcher is Johan Santana which will cause them to lose a lot of games. They do have great relievers and a great closer in Joe Nathan which may help the less than mediocre rotation. I just don’t think it’s the Twins year this season but I do think they will the one of the strongest teams next year with the return of starting pitcher Francisco Liriano and the development of Matt Garza.
The Chicago White Sox have fallen off hard after their 2005 championship. They still maintain a great lineup of batters but their starting pitching is awful. Their best pitcher is Jose Contreras and he fell off harder after the all star break last season than the team as a whole did the past year. Some buzz has been going on about the White Sox and I honestly don’t see why.
The AL West seems the easiest to predict with the Los Angeles Angels. They have two great batters in Gary Matthews Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero. The rest of the lineup is decent at best however, which can cause them to put out small numbers. They do have a great pitching staff all around with starting pitchers John Lackey, Evrin Santana, and Jeff Weaver; a great bullpen with Kelvim Escobar, Scot Shields, and Justin Speier; and perhaps one of the best closers this season in Francisco Rodriguez. Look for the Angels to runaway with the AL West title.
The Oakland A’s, last years AL West champions, have fallen off harder than the White Sox. They have absolutely no great batter and no proven starting pitcher. Rich Harden and Dan Haren could come out and perform very well but they are questions, just like the rest of the team.
Before I begin to discuss the National League, let me warn you that I don’t have nearly as much knowledge on this league as I do on the American League. I’m not the best person to listen to when it comes to predicting this league but I did my best researching which is why I still feel confident with my picks.
In the National League East, the New York Mets’ lineup looks excellent. Besides the Yankees, the Mets could have the best lineup in all of baseball. Their starting pitching is the giant question mark. The pitchers are very old, I mean Roger Clemens old, and since there’s only one Roger Clemens, I don’t see them taking over the “ace” role in the rotation. They do have John Maine who can help the rotation a lot. Also, they have good pitching prospects in Phillip Humber and Mike Pelfrey can help out with pitching struggles early on. The 2007 Mets remind me most of the 2006 Yankees; a great season and a disappointing early exit in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Braves look to come back to glory after losing the NL East title last season for the first time in 11 seasons. They can do it with a good lineup including Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Jeff Francoeur. Starting pitchers John Smoltz and Chuck James can help out a lot as well. Their bullpen and closer will not disappoint either.
The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten better over the past year. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are both potential MVP candidates and their starting pitching has improved with Brett Myers maturing and the signing of Freddy Garcia. Wes Helms is a player to watch as he hit a quiet .329 last season. I like this team but I don’t see them contending with the Mets. Ryan Howard’s slumping spring training this year is also something to pay attention to. Yes, I know its just spring training and its not a big deal, except Howard is making it a big deal with can hurt his mental state at the plate.
The Florida Marlins had an excellent second half of the season last season. Their horrendous first half prevented them from reaching the postseason however. Their lineup and rotation is good and the only thing that’s preventing them from becoming a lock is their horrible bullpen. This can be fixed however if pitcher Matt Lindstrom turns out to perform well (he has never played in the big leagues before). Also pitcher Josh Johnson can help out a great deal when he comes back from his injury in June. The Marlins are my surprise special with a potential to finish as high as second in the East.
The Washington Nationals are also a team to be discussed. Not because of their ability to contend with their division but because of their ability to contend with history. That’s right, place your bets now; How many games will the Nationals lose this year? The single season record was set by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders who finished their season 20-134. I don’t believe the Nationals can lose more games with their team batting average at .265 and their team earned runs average at 6.24 but I have my money at 121 losses this season.
In the NL Central, the defending World Series champions St. Louis Cardinals, maintain their core batting lineup. It’s their rotation which bothers me. They lost Jared Weaver and Jeff Suppan in the off-season and replaced them with former bullpen pitchers Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper. This creates a huge question mark along with closer Jason Isringhausen coming off an injury.
The Houston Astros added the big bat of Carlos Lee which will greatly improve their lineup along with Lance Berkman. I actually have Berkman as my MVP runner-up. Having said that, they don’t seem to have enough hitters but that didn’t stop them in 2005, why should it stop them this season? Plus they have a potential big bat in Luke Scott and prospect Hunter Pence is a future all star. Their starting pitching is great with Roy Oswalt, Jason Jennings, and Woody Williams. I see this team contending early on which will convince Roger Clemens to stay an Astro this season.
The Chicago Cubs were the busiest team this off-season. They have beefed up their lineup tremendously and their rotation is pretty good too. I see Ted Lilly helping out a lot even though his ERA last season was over four. I’ll tell you why, he pitched in the AL East last season; plus everyone knows that pitching in the NL is a lot easier than in the AL. Starting pitcher Rich Hill is a question mark but he does look promising. Mark Prior could help out as well if he can stay healthy for once in his life. They will have to spend a few more dollars picking up a closer before the deadline because closer Ryan Dempster is not going to cut it.
The Milwaukee Brewers is a team I have been mulling over a lot. They are a young team with great potential batters. They also have Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Capuano in their rotation. The fact that the bullpen is mediocre and their batters are young made me decide not to have them moving onto the postseason this year but I do look forward to watching them 2008.
In the west, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to be favorites. Their lineup is good along with their rotation which now includes Jason Schmidt. Their bullpen and closer is phenomenal which can bail out starting pitchers that will struggle.
The San Diego Padres have a great rotation. Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and Clay Hensley will provide much needed help due to the fact that they don’t have a lot of great batters besides Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Bard. Their bullpen and closer are great too.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a good lineup along with 2006 Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. The problem is they ONLY have Webb. This spells trouble for their rotation and their closer is awful as well.
To round out the year, I have the New York Yankees defeating the Houston Astros, 4-1, in the World Series including a game where long-time friends, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens square off against each other.
As for individual awards, the AL MVP will go to Derek Jeter for two simple reasons. One, he was robbed last season for the award which I think he’s secretly pissed off about and two, it will be manager Joe Torre’s last season with the Yankees and I know that Jeter has a lot of love for Torre causing him to perform greater than he has ever before. In the NL, I was originally leaning toward Albert Pujols, but the award must go to a playoff contender and I don’t see the Cardinals in the postseason so I’m giving it to Derrek Lee who almost won the award two seasons ago. Last season, injuries kept him out but I see a huge comeback on the horizon. Johan Santana will runaway with the AL Cy Young and in the NL, I see Roy Oswalt taking the Cy Young due to his increasing performance every season. The AL Rookie of the Year will be Tampa Bay Devil Ray outfielder Delmon Young and in the NL, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Homer Bailey, perhaps the best pitching prospect besides Philip Hughes, will grab the award.
Recap:
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Cleveland Indians
NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Houston Astros
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Chicago Cubs
World Series: New York Yankees over Houston Astros, 4-1
AL MVP: Derek Jeter
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL ROY: Delmon Young
NL MVP: Derrek Lee
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
NL ROY: Homer Bailey
Source: Baseball-Reference.com
Photos: MLB.com
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