First Round
Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
One of the easier match-ups to predict, the Detroit Pistons are again the #1 seed in the East. I love this Magic team, but the problem is that they are too young and inexperienced. This will be a great learning experience for Dwight Howard though who I believe will finish his NBA career with at least two rings. The Grant Hill/Darko Milicic return to Detroit will grab headlines for the series as well.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards
Perhaps the easiest match-up to predict simply because the Washington Wizards don’t even belong in the playoffs; the Cavaliers should easily sweep a team without their two top players (Arenas & Butler).
Toronto Raptors vs. New Jersey Nets
Getting into the harder match-ups of the tournament, the Raptors are my favorite team in the tournament. This is the true definition of a team that plays together. Every player fits perfectly together coached by the potential coach of the year in Sam Mitchell. The Nets are a very dangerous team right now winning 8 of their last 10 games. The Jason Kidd-Vince Carter 1-2 punch reminds me most of the Denver Nuggets. Vince Carter’s return to Toronto should make some news. I have the Raptors in six because of their ability to play as a team.
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
With a rematch of the first round last year the Chicago Bulls look for revenge, this time with Ben Wallace at center. The favorite pick would be to go with Chicago since they brought the Heat to game six last year without Wallace, and also because of the fact that Dwayne Wade has both a bum shoulder and knee. I do believe that this series will go to seven games but in that situation you can’t go against Wade if he’s on the court. Wade will light up Chicago in the seventh game with 42 points. Look for Chicago to setup pick-and-roll plays on Wade to wear out his shoulder in desperate situations.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
The biggest story here is that Golden State won all 3 games they faced against Dallas this season. The second biggest story is that the mentor, Warriors head coach Don Nelson, will face against his pupil, Mavericks head coach Avery Johnson. I don’t think either story will have any impact on the series as Dallas handles Golden State in five games.
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Another rematch of last years first round, except now Phoenix is an elite team and well, you can’t really consider Kobe an elite team. I don’t expect the Suns to demolish the Lakers because of the Kobe show we will all witness this year. Don’t look for him to hand over the game to his teammates; he learned his lesson last year, which caused them to lose three straight games costing them the series. Even though the Lakers are on a bad slump losing 6 out of their last 9 games, Phil Jackson will have them ready to give Phoenix a decent shot. The Raja Bell-Kobe match-up will be interesting to watch as last year it ended up with both a physical and verbal brawl. I have the Suns in six games.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are very impressive right now and the Carmelo-Iverson tandem seems to be working. The Nuggets have won 10 of their last 11 games with wins over the Mavericks, Spurs, Jazz, and twice Lakers. However, on the other side of the floor, the Spurs have been in this situation last year with the Kings and it worked out for them pretty good. Add the fire of Tim Duncan because of the whole Joey Crawford situation, and you have yourself a scary team. The Spur’s outstanding defensive display will take care of the Nuggets in five games.
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
The most exciting match-up of the first round can go either way. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are way too strong right now to discount them from the competition. However, the Jazz seem to have not one weak position in their starting five lineup. With Andrei Kirilenko back as small forward, the Jazz have Deron Willams (one of the top 5 PG’s in the game) as point guard, Derek Fisher (plenty of playoff experience and rings) as shooting guard, Carlos Boozer (all-star) as power forward, and Mehmet Okur (can shoot from anywhere on the court) as center. In seven games, I have the Jazz defeating the Rockets.
Conference Semi-Finals
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat
This is my only upset by seed of the tournament this year (I’m not very proud of this, but I can’t seem to change any of my picks no matter how much I try). The Detroit Pistons look very impressive especially with Chris Webber looking good again. Chauncey Billups is also playing for a contract and their defense is almost as good as what it has been for the last three years. However, the only weak link is their coach, Flip Saunders who is the Marty Schottenheimer of the NBA; great regular season, terrible postseason. I see this going to a game seven which seems like Dwayne Wade’s specialty; Heat move on.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors
Another exciting and unpredictable match-up that had me puzzled. That is until I noticed the fact that point guard Larry Hughes was injured last season and was not able to take part when the Cavaliers were up 3-2 against the Eastern-best Pistons. With Larry Hughes back to compliment Lebron I can’t see them being stopped. As much as I love the Raptors this season, Cavaliers in six.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
The Jazz look impressive, but not impressive enough to compete with the defense of the Mavericks. Neither Boozer nor Okur can defend Nowitzki which will cause the series to end in five games.
Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
The second best match-up of the entire tournament will take place between these two teams. Now normally, I would have the Suns running over the aging Spurs team, but Duncan’s fire will continue into the second round. The stat to look at is the fact that the Suns have the highest points per game in the entire league at 110.2, while the Spurs have a league best, 90.1 allowed points per game. Having said that, I don’t think the leagues best defense could stop the Suns who made it to the conference finals last year without Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas. Now that these two players are in the mix, I think the offense of the Suns is too powerful to be stopped four times by the Spurs; I have the Suns in seven.
Conference Finals
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Lebron vs. Wade; this is no doubt the biggest story here. Except it’s not really fair because the crippled Wade has had to go through the Bulls and the Pistons by now, which will surely wear him down. The injuries of James Posey, Udonis Haslem, and Gary Payton have the Heat running at far less than 100%. The Heat’s hope to repeat will diminish as Lebron reaches the NBA Finals for the first time in his career; the Cavaliers defeat the Heat in six games.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
The match-up everyone has been waiting for is here; the true championship game takes place in the Western conference finals as the two top team’s battle it out which will no doubt end in a seven game historical event. Last year the Mavericks took the series 4-2, but that was without the help of Stoudemire. With the season series tied up 2-2, the Suns and Mavericks are similar in more ways than one. They both have very good point guards (Nash and Terry) who can take shots and dish the ball; dominant big men (Stoudemire and Nowitzki) who can take over the game and rebound the ball; and very good forwards (Marion and Howard) who can drive the ball the play defense. The difference between these two teams is that the Mavericks can play defense all around which will be the ultimate deciding factor in the series. Not only will Nowitzki defeat Nash in the MVP race, but he will also defeat him on the court in seven games.
Finals
Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
In an anti-climatic finish to the most exciting playoff season I’ve ever seen, the Finals will be short and not very exciting the watch. Don’t count on the Mavericks to fall apart like they did last year after being up 2-0 against the Heat to ultimately lose in six games. I have the Mavericks defeating the Cavaliers in five games.
Sources: Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com
Sports Moment of the Week
Jackie Robinson Day where it seemed as if everyone who honored Jackie Robinson by wearing #42 had a great day.
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