Shooting Craps with College Athletes

Welcome to the weekend that’s based on 20% skill and 80% luck. The NFL Draft is here for another year filled with NFL execs shooting the dice on college players and hoping they roll a 7. With first round busts and seventh round gems, the NFL Draft is one of the most unpredictable events on sports, the other being the MLB Draft which I hear lasts an incredible 50 rounds (and people think the game can sometimes be boring). Besides the unpredictability of the draft, it still remains a tense yet exciting weekend where die hard football fans should at least watch the first two rounds. My favorite part is when the commissioner says those five magic words, “There has been a trade”. I’m going to do my best to analyze what each team needs and throw in a few possible picks they can select in the first round. I’m deciding not to project the draft because it is so unpredictable and it would be a waste of time to do so. The selection of a player is a lot more complex than just choosing a player based on their talent and the team’s needs; a lot of politics and money is involved in these decisions. Let’s begin the breakdown by first round draft pick.

Oakland Raiders
Possible Picks: QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, WR Calvin Johnson, OT Joe Thomas
The Oakland Raiders can pick any offensive player with the number one over all pick, that’s how bad their offense is. In fact, I think the Raiders should use at least 9 of their 10 picks this year on offensive players. Their defense was ranked third in the entire league. The big debate with the Raiders is whether they should draft QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, or the best player in the draft, WR Calvin Johnson. Honestly, I can’t see anything wrong with either of these picks but I will tell you this; no matter what quarterback they select, with the current offensive line, Peyton Manning couldn’t achieve greatness. They can go with the quarterback in the first round but if they do, they MUST use their next two picks on offensive linemen otherwise Russell or Quinn will turn into the next David Carr.

Detroit Lions
Possible Picks: QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, DE Gaines Adams, CB Leon Hall, DT Amobi Okoye, WR Calvin Johnson
The Detroit Lions have holes to fill in both their offense and defense. Starting with their quarterback and on down to their 28th ranked defense, the Lions need a lot of help. With Jon Kitna as the starting quarterback, the Lions can definitely use this year to make up for their Joey Harrington pick in 2002. They can also draft a cornerback with the loss of Dre Bly to the Broncos in the off-season. A defensive tackle, defensive end, or linebacker pick would be smart as well. Don’t be surprised if they pursue Calvin Johnson which would be their fourth wide receiver selection in the past five years.

Cleveland Browns
Possible Picks: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Joe Thomas, S LaRon Landry, DE Gaines Adams, CB Leon Hall
Another team with a quarterback need is the Browns, who also desperately need help at a lot of other positions including offensive tackle, running back, defensive end, safety and cornerback. I think the Browns should eschew their pick for quarterback in the first round and go with another need. Going with hometown hero QB Troy Smith (who I think has unfairly dropped in draft status) in the third or fourth round would be a better decision. Running back Adrian Peterson would be an attractive pick for them which would allow them to switch to a two running back system along with newly acquired Jamal Lewis.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Possible Picks: WR Calvin Johnson, DT Amobi Okoye, S LaRon Landry, DE Gaines Adams
If I was a Bucs fan and they drafted a quarterback in the first round I would throw a brick on my television; they have more options for quarterback than the Lions do for wide receiver. To compliment their excessive options for quarterback, the Buccaneers should draft Calvin Johnson with the first no-brainer of the draft. If he’s taken by this time they should go with either a defensive tackle or safety to revamp their once great defense which has slipped to 17th overall in the league.

Arizona Cardinals
Possible Picks: S LaRon Landry, DE Gaines Adams, CB Leon Hall, DT Amobi Okoye
The Cardinals have a promising offense that should be complimented by a better defense which is now ranked 29th in the league. They do have some offensive tackle issues but I don’t know whether they should take one in the first round with the amount of holes in the defense. I would select the best available defensive player with this pick no matter what position he plays (that’s how bad their defense is).

Washington Redskins
Possible Picks: DE Gaines Adams, DT Amobi Okoye, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson
The Redskins’ weakness comes in their defensive line which caused them to be the second worst defense in the league; they can’t pressure a quarterback if he had chicken wings attached to his body. A defensive tackle or defensive end pick would be ideal in the first round.

Minnesota Vikings
Possible Picks: TE Greg Olsen, WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Dwayne Jarrett
Pop quiz: Who is the starting quarterback for the Vikings? Give up? It’s Tarvaris Jackson. Exactly, they need a quarterback. If Brady Quinn is available by this point it would be a no-brainer but I don’t think he will be available. Concentrating on other needs, although the Vikings were ranked 8th in total defense, they still have holes to fill in their line. I do however think they should think offensive with their first pick going with either a wide receiver or tight end. Their later round draft picks should concentrate on a QB in either Drew Stanton or Trent Edwards.

Atlanta Falcons
Possible Picks: DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
The perfect scenario for the Falcons would be to trade up to get Calvin Johnson so Michael Vick has no more excuses. However, since the world isn’t perfect, the Falcons should fill their giant hole in the defensive end slot with the departure of Patrick Kerney.

Miami Dolphins
Possible Picks: QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, OT Levi Brown, OT Joe Staley
The Dolphins have huge quarterback issues which they are trying to resolve by acquiring Trent Green from the Chiefs. If they get that need addressed, they should think offensive line to help out their future quarterback and future star running back Ronnie Brown. If they don’t get that need addressed, they should trade up to acquire either JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn.

Houston Texans
Possible Picks: CB Leon Hall, DT Amobi Okoye, CB Darrelle Revis, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
Houston is another team that needs to think defensively with the current teams in their division (Colts, Jaguars, and Titans). Being in the same boat as the Cardinals, they should draft the best defensive player available.

San Francisco 49ers
Possible Picks: WR Dwayne Bowe, WR Ted Ginn Jr., CB Darrelle Revis, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
The 49ers are in the same situation as the Cardinals and Texans as far as their defense is concerned. Going with a wide receiver would be a consideration as quarterback Alex Smith matures.

Buffalo Bills
Possible Picks: RB Michael Bush, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Antonio Pittman, LB Patrick Willis, LB Lawrence Timmons
The Bills have had a horrible off-season letting go of LB London Fletcher and RB Willis McGahee. Pursuing a running back and a few linebackers this year is necessary. I would go with a now healthy RB Michael Bush who everyone has seem to forgotten since he was injured in September.

St. Louis Rams
Possible Picks: CB Darrelle Revis, DT Alan Branch, DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker
The Rams need all the help they can get on defense. Going after a defensive line or secondary is what will most likely happen in the first round.

Carolina Panthers
Possible Picks: OT Joe Staley, TE Greg Olsen
It’s no question that the panthers need help on the offensive line as quarterback Jake Delhomme was sacked 22 times in 2006. This need should be addressed in the first round. A tight end would also help Delhomme out because Michael Gaines is certainly not going to cut it.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Possible Picks: LB Lawrence Timmons, LB Paul Posluszny
Picking out a need for the Steelers is quite easy with the departure of Joey Porter; they need a linebacker.

Green Bay Packers
Possible Picks: RB Michael Bush, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Antonio Pittman, WR Dwayne Bowe, WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Robert Meachem
Picking out a need for the Packers is equally as easy as running back Ahman Green has left for Houston. A wide receiver wouldn’t hurt either.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Possible Picks: S Reggie Nelson, S Michael Griffin
The Jaguars seem to be set with a lot of their players. Their defense is ranked second in the league and they have a lot of weapons on the offense, if only their quarterbacks can use them well. Safety would be the way to go if I were general manager.

Cincinnati Bengals
Possible Picks: DE Jamaal Anderson, DE Adam Carriker, DE Jarvis Moss, LB Lawrence Timmons
Sorry, I’m fresh out of Cincinnattica Bengals jokes these days. All you really have to do is mention their defense and that would be enough for a laugh as they are ranked 30th in the league. I would concentrate on the front lines of the defense even though they do need secondary help as well.

Tennessee Titans
Possible Picks: CB Darrelle Revis, CB Aaron Ross
Worst ranked defense in the league and they lose Pacman Jones to a one-year suspension. Hmm… I’m having a hard time figuring out what the Titans are in need of.

New York Giants
Possible Picks: LB Lawrence Timmons, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Darrelle Revis, CB Aaron Ross
In 2006-2007, the Giants went from having a monster defense with a great set of linebackers, to losing players to injury and eight of their last ten regular season games, to releasing quality linebackers LaVar Arrington and Carlos Emmons. I think it’s obvious to go linebacker here. If not linebacker, a secondary pick would be useful.

Denver Broncos
Possible Picks: DE Jarvis Moss, LB Lawrence Timmons, LB Paul Posluszny, LB David Harris, DT Justin Harrell
The Broncos look like they’re set on offense. As far as the defense is concerned, I see holes in their defensive line and line backing core. They’ve filled their need for cornerback after the tragic death of Darrent Williams with the acquisition of Dre Bly.

Dallas Cowboys
Possible Picks: CB Aaron Ross, CB Chris Houston
The Cowboys addressed their safety issues by acquiring Ken Hamlin. They need another cornerback and defensive end. A cornerback selection is the way to go as their passing defensive was ranked 24th in the league and was a major cause for the loss of three out of the last four regular season games to lose the NFC East which was supposed to be pretty much locked up.

Kansas City Chiefs
Possible Picks: WR Robert Meachem, WR Dwayne Jarrett, OT Joe Staley, OT Tony Ugoh
The move the Chiefs made by sending wide receiver Dante Hall to St. Louis narrows down their biggest need in the first round. They can also go along the path of building up their offensive line which performed horribly in the playoffs against the Colts.

New England Patriots
Possible Picks: RB Marshawn Lnych, RB Antonio Pittman, RB Kenny Irons
Picking out a need for the Patriots is pretty difficult because they had such a great off-season signing LB Adalius Thomas and WR Donte Stallworth. I’m assuming the Patriots will get a deal done with CB Asante Samuel so they won’t have a big need at that position. They did release RB Corey Dillon, so they might want a backup for Laurence Maroney. Any other pick would be strictly for insurance.

New York Jets
Possible Picks: DE Jarvis Moss, DE Anthony Spencer, DT Justin Harrell, OT Tony Ugoh, OT Marshal Yanda
The Jets have recently switched to a 3-4 defense, which means the constant need for better defensive linemen. They did need a running back, but they handled that situation with the signing of Thomas Jones. To protect him, they should look to better offensive linemen as well.

Philadelphia Eagles
Possible Picks: WR Robert Meachem, WR Dwayne Jarrett, WR Sidney Rice, S Michael Griffin, S Brandon Meriweather
The Eagles’ needs are quite simple; more reliable targets for Donovan McNabb. They also lost S Michael Lewis which can be another option for them.

New Orleans Saints
Possible Picks: S Brandon Meriweather, S Eric Weddle
The Saints offense is dominant; they need to match the talent of their offense with the talent of their defense. I would go safety with this pick as they lost two this off-season in the free agency market.

Baltimore Ravens
Possible Picks: LB Paul Posluszny, LB Jon Beason, LB David Harris, LB Buster Davis
The Ravens’ job is clear; with the loss of linebacker Adalius Thomas, they have to find talent to replace him.

San Diego Chargers
Possible Picks: WR Dwayne Jarrett, WR Sidney Rice, WR Steve Smith
The Chargers’ top wide receivers are Eric Parker and Vincent Jackson. They need more targets and better targets for quarterback Philip Rivers.

Chicago Bears
Possible Picks: LB Jon Beason, LB David Harris, LB Buster Davis, LB Stewart Bradley
The Bears have a huge problem with LB Lance Briggs. Either they’re going to have to end up trading him or he’s going to sit out ten games. Either way, they need to find a replacement.

Indianapolis Colts
Possible Picks: DE Anthony Spencer, DE LaMarr Woodley, DT Justin Harrell, DT Alan Branch
The Colts are a hard team to figure out. They were dead last in stopping the run during the regular season but in the playoffs they stopped running back Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis. Maybe the defensive line got better or maybe they were more motivated. Either way, I wouldn’t risk it, I’d build up my line.

Seattle Seahawks
Possible Picks: G Ben Grubbs, G Arron Sears, OT Tony Ugoh, OT Marshal Yanda, TE Zach Miller
The bad news for Seattle is that they are the only team without a first round pick. The good news is that they don’t have many needs. I would go for a little protection for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and running back Shaun Alexander in either an offensive lineman or tight end.

Sources: ESPN.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com

Sports Moment of the Week

Alex Rodriguez's walk-off homerun against Cleveland last Thursday. The Yankees were down 6-2 in the bottom of the 9th inning with 2 outs before they sparked a rally to win the game 8-6. This is Alex Rodriguez's second walk-off homerun this season.

2007 NBA Playoffs Preview

With the exciting conclusion to the NBA season where five of the playoff spots were determined on the last day, it brings in a more exciting NBA playoff season. This year’s playoff match-ups were the hardest I’ve ever had to pick. There are so many good match-ups and very good teams that it took a lot of thought just to get out of the first round. So without further interruption lets move on to the predictions.


First Round

Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
One of the easier match-ups to predict, the Detroit Pistons are again the #1 seed in the East. I love this Magic team, but the problem is that they are too young and inexperienced. This will be a great learning experience for Dwight Howard though who I believe will finish his NBA career with at least two rings. The Grant Hill/Darko Milicic return to Detroit will grab headlines for the series as well.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards
Perhaps the easiest match-up to predict simply because the Washington Wizards don’t even belong in the playoffs; the Cavaliers should easily sweep a team without their two top players (Arenas & Butler).

Toronto Raptors vs. New Jersey Nets
Getting into the harder match-ups of the tournament, the Raptors are my favorite team in the tournament. This is the true definition of a team that plays together. Every player fits perfectly together coached by the potential coach of the year in Sam Mitchell. The Nets are a very dangerous team right now winning 8 of their last 10 games. The Jason Kidd-Vince Carter 1-2 punch reminds me most of the Denver Nuggets. Vince Carter’s return to Toronto should make some news. I have the Raptors in six because of their ability to play as a team.

Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
With a rematch of the first round last year the Chicago Bulls look for revenge, this time with Ben Wallace at center. The favorite pick would be to go with Chicago since they brought the Heat to game six last year without Wallace, and also because of the fact that Dwayne Wade has both a bum shoulder and knee. I do believe that this series will go to seven games but in that situation you can’t go against Wade if he’s on the court. Wade will light up Chicago in the seventh game with 42 points. Look for Chicago to setup pick-and-roll plays on Wade to wear out his shoulder in desperate situations.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
The biggest story here is that Golden State won all 3 games they faced against Dallas this season. The second biggest story is that the mentor, Warriors head coach Don Nelson, will face against his pupil, Mavericks head coach Avery Johnson. I don’t think either story will have any impact on the series as Dallas handles Golden State in five games.

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Another rematch of last years first round, except now Phoenix is an elite team and well, you can’t really consider Kobe an elite team. I don’t expect the Suns to demolish the Lakers because of the Kobe show we will all witness this year. Don’t look for him to hand over the game to his teammates; he learned his lesson last year, which caused them to lose three straight games costing them the series. Even though the Lakers are on a bad slump losing 6 out of their last 9 games, Phil Jackson will have them ready to give Phoenix a decent shot. The Raja Bell-Kobe match-up will be interesting to watch as last year it ended up with both a physical and verbal brawl. I have the Suns in six games.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are very impressive right now and the Carmelo-Iverson tandem seems to be working. The Nuggets have won 10 of their last 11 games with wins over the Mavericks, Spurs, Jazz, and twice Lakers. However, on the other side of the floor, the Spurs have been in this situation last year with the Kings and it worked out for them pretty good. Add the fire of Tim Duncan because of the whole Joey Crawford situation, and you have yourself a scary team. The Spur’s outstanding defensive display will take care of the Nuggets in five games.

Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
The most exciting match-up of the first round can go either way. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are way too strong right now to discount them from the competition. However, the Jazz seem to have not one weak position in their starting five lineup. With Andrei Kirilenko back as small forward, the Jazz have Deron Willams (one of the top 5 PG’s in the game) as point guard, Derek Fisher (plenty of playoff experience and rings) as shooting guard, Carlos Boozer (all-star) as power forward, and Mehmet Okur (can shoot from anywhere on the court) as center. In seven games, I have the Jazz defeating the Rockets.

Conference Semi-Finals

Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat
This is my only upset by seed of the tournament this year (I’m not very proud of this, but I can’t seem to change any of my picks no matter how much I try). The Detroit Pistons look very impressive especially with Chris Webber looking good again. Chauncey Billups is also playing for a contract and their defense is almost as good as what it has been for the last three years. However, the only weak link is their coach, Flip Saunders who is the Marty Schottenheimer of the NBA; great regular season, terrible postseason. I see this going to a game seven which seems like Dwayne Wade’s specialty; Heat move on.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors
Another exciting and unpredictable match-up that had me puzzled. That is until I noticed the fact that point guard Larry Hughes was injured last season and was not able to take part when the Cavaliers were up 3-2 against the Eastern-best Pistons. With Larry Hughes back to compliment Lebron I can’t see them being stopped. As much as I love the Raptors this season, Cavaliers in six.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
The Jazz look impressive, but not impressive enough to compete with the defense of the Mavericks. Neither Boozer nor Okur can defend Nowitzki which will cause the series to end in five games.

Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
The second best match-up of the entire tournament will take place between these two teams. Now normally, I would have the Suns running over the aging Spurs team, but Duncan’s fire will continue into the second round. The stat to look at is the fact that the Suns have the highest points per game in the entire league at 110.2, while the Spurs have a league best, 90.1 allowed points per game. Having said that, I don’t think the leagues best defense could stop the Suns who made it to the conference finals last year without Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas. Now that these two players are in the mix, I think the offense of the Suns is too powerful to be stopped four times by the Spurs; I have the Suns in seven.

Conference Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Lebron vs. Wade; this is no doubt the biggest story here. Except it’s not really fair because the crippled Wade has had to go through the Bulls and the Pistons by now, which will surely wear him down. The injuries of James Posey, Udonis Haslem, and Gary Payton have the Heat running at far less than 100%. The Heat’s hope to repeat will diminish as Lebron reaches the NBA Finals for the first time in his career; the Cavaliers defeat the Heat in six games.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
The match-up everyone has been waiting for is here; the true championship game takes place in the Western conference finals as the two top team’s battle it out which will no doubt end in a seven game historical event. Last year the Mavericks took the series 4-2, but that was without the help of Stoudemire. With the season series tied up 2-2, the Suns and Mavericks are similar in more ways than one. They both have very good point guards (Nash and Terry) who can take shots and dish the ball; dominant big men (Stoudemire and Nowitzki) who can take over the game and rebound the ball; and very good forwards (Marion and Howard) who can drive the ball the play defense. The difference between these two teams is that the Mavericks can play defense all around which will be the ultimate deciding factor in the series. Not only will Nowitzki defeat Nash in the MVP race, but he will also defeat him on the court in seven games.

Finals

Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
In an anti-climatic finish to the most exciting playoff season I’ve ever seen, the Finals will be short and not very exciting the watch. Don’t count on the Mavericks to fall apart like they did last year after being up 2-0 against the Heat to ultimately lose in six games. I have the Mavericks defeating the Cavaliers in five games.

Sources: Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com

Sports Moment of the Week

Jackie Robinson Day where it seemed as if everyone who honored Jackie Robinson by wearing #42 had a great day.

Florida is having the best decade ever

With the Florida Gators winning their second consecutive basketball championship last week, it dawned on me to think about the number of championships they have won, which later got me thinking about the University of Miami, which later got me thinking about the Miami Heat, and so on. It was at that point that I then realized that the state of Florida has been winning a lot of championships in our current decade. It might seem as if it is just a couple teams, but when you look back until 2001, it really surprises you. Let’s take a look at the past champions from the state of Florida.

It all started in 2001 with the University of Miami winning the BCS Championship game. Arguably the best college football team put together had the likes of Clinton Portis, Ed Reed, Jeremy Shockey, Bryant McKinnie, Willis McGahee, Andre Johnson, Jonathan Vilma, Phillip Buchanon, Kellen Winslow, and Sean Taylor. Just a fabulous job done by Miami scouts, who seem to have been so proud of themselves for putting a team like this that they significantly got lazier.

There was a year long hiatus for Florida in 2002, but it was quickly made up for in 2003 when three Florida teams won championships. In the NFL, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won their first championship in their franchise history. In the MLB, the Florida Marlins upset the New York Yankees to win the World Series 4-2. This completely ripped the hearts out of Yankees fans around the world due to the fact that they just finished a seven game series with the Boston Red Sox winning the game seven thanks to a guy named Aaron Boone hitting a homerun in extra innings. And in the AFL, the Tampa Bay Storm took the title.

Florida’s luck continued in 2004 when the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup in the NHL. In 2006, the Florida Gators took the NCAA basketball championship in a year full of upsets. The Miami Heat came back from a 0-2 deficit to the Dallas Mavericks to defeat them 4-2 and win the NBA championship; this was their first championship in their franchise’s history. Finally, in 2007 the Florida Gators continued their domination winning both the NCAA BCS championship and NCAA basketball championship.

Adding up all of the championships won by the state of Florida in a seven year period, the final count is 9. We still have three more years to go, which begs the question, which Florida teams have yet to win a championship in this decade. In the NBA, the Orlando Magic; in the NFL, the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars; in the MLB, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays; in the NHL, the Florida Panthers; in the AFL, the Orlando Predators; and in college, the Florida State Seminoles.

By the end of the decade, Florida can make a serious run at 12 to 13 championships. In the NBA, the Orlando Magic has a decent maturing squad who can pull off a championship before the end of the decade and the Miami Heat could most certainly repeat. In the NFL, both the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars have a potential to win a championship. In the MLB, the Florida Marlins could be a surprise team due to their youth, and with Florida’s luck, who knows what can happen to the Devil Rays. Ok maybe they can’t, I think I’m getting a little carried away. I don’t know too much about the NHL, but it looks like both Tampa Bay and Florida have records over 500 so maybe they can do something. The Orlando Predators in the AFL went to the Arena Bowl last year and lost so they can most certainly win a championship. In college, it is so unpredictable with teams finding new players every year that any of the three large universities in Florida can win a championship.

It’s not only about the championships either; Florida is also hosting five Super Bowls in this decade: two in Miami, two in Tampa, and one in Jacksonville. This brings huge amounts of celebrities and parties to the state. With this much luck, people in Florida have nothing to complain about. Non-stop partying and celebrating championships should keep their spirits high. Not to mention the fact that they have some of the best beaches and weather in the United States. For the first time in my life, I actually wish I was a Floridian to witness greatness year after year. All I know is that for the remainder of the decade, if a Florida team is participating in a championship, you can’t go wrong betting on them.

Sports Moment of the Week

The Florida Gators won their second consecutive basketball championship last week being the first to do so since Duke in the early 90’s. They also are the first school in history to be football and basketball champions in the same year.

2007 MLB Preview

Let’s skip the introduction and jump right in here. I’m only going to concentrate on who I believe can potential contend this year. And this year it seems as if the entire league can contend which should make for an exciting and unpredictable season.

Starting with the American League and the New York Yankees which I have the most knowledge of being a fan and all; the Yankees suffered last season due to starting pitching and timely hitting. In the off-season they fixed one of these problems by signing Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa. They also decided not to trade Carl Pavano giving them a little more depth. If starting pitching struggles in the first half of the season look for the Yankees to make a blockbuster trade by July which can include the likes of Dontrelle Willis. Top pitching prospects Philip Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, and Jeff Karstens can also step in if injuries occur. The bullpen can use improvement but closer Mariano Rivera is always reliable. With arguably the best lineup in all of baseball, the Yankees look like a lock to win their division. The problem is not the regular season but rather the playoffs. Players must come up with hits and move runners around the bases. If they can continue their regular season performance in the postseason, they will be very hard to stop.

The Boston Red Sox seem like the only other team that can contend with the Yankees in the AL East. Their rotation has dramatically improved since last year. The signing of Daisuke Matsuzaka was huge and look for Jon Lester to have an incredible season after undergoing chemotherapy last season, kind of looks like a potential Lance Armstrong story. The lineup, which was not necessarily a problem last season, is slightly better with the signings of Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. I see Josh Beckett and Coco Crisp having great comeback seasons. The biggest problem I have with the Red Sox is their bullpen, which is exactly why they finished third place last season. The Red Sox improved their bullpen this season by signing… NO ONE… With the current bullpen they have I don’t see them in the postseason this year.

The AL Central is the most unpredictable division seeing how they have four potential contenders. The Detroit Tigers look the strongest not only because they haven’t gotten rid of anyone but they added the key element that they were missing, a power hitter in Gary Sheffield. This team will be very dangerous this season due to the good hitters in Sheffield, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Ivan Rodriguez. Their lineup seems a little older which doesn’t necessarily mean anything this year but it can mean a sharp decline in incoming years if players are not replaced. The Tigers also have a great rotation with Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson. The bullpen is also very good but there can be issues in closing games out with closer Todd Jones. This team also plays great defense which can kill any lineup along with their pitching.

The Cleveland Indians look like a great comeback team this season. They have great batters in Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez and great starters in C.C. Sabathia and Jeremy Sowers. The rest of the starting rotation looks okay along with their bullpen. They do have some insurance in starting pitching prospect Adam Miller who can help out midseason if other guys struggle.

The Minnesota Twins are another team with a great batting lineup. The problem is their only proven starting pitcher is Johan Santana which will cause them to lose a lot of games. They do have great relievers and a great closer in Joe Nathan which may help the less than mediocre rotation. I just don’t think it’s the Twins year this season but I do think they will the one of the strongest teams next year with the return of starting pitcher Francisco Liriano and the development of Matt Garza.

The Chicago White Sox have fallen off hard after their 2005 championship. They still maintain a great lineup of batters but their starting pitching is awful. Their best pitcher is Jose Contreras and he fell off harder after the all star break last season than the team as a whole did the past year. Some buzz has been going on about the White Sox and I honestly don’t see why.

The AL West seems the easiest to predict with the Los Angeles Angels. They have two great batters in Gary Matthews Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero. The rest of the lineup is decent at best however, which can cause them to put out small numbers. They do have a great pitching staff all around with starting pitchers John Lackey, Evrin Santana, and Jeff Weaver; a great bullpen with Kelvim Escobar, Scot Shields, and Justin Speier; and perhaps one of the best closers this season in Francisco Rodriguez. Look for the Angels to runaway with the AL West title.

The Oakland A’s, last years AL West champions, have fallen off harder than the White Sox. They have absolutely no great batter and no proven starting pitcher. Rich Harden and Dan Haren could come out and perform very well but they are questions, just like the rest of the team.

Before I begin to discuss the National League, let me warn you that I don’t have nearly as much knowledge on this league as I do on the American League. I’m not the best person to listen to when it comes to predicting this league but I did my best researching which is why I still feel confident with my picks.

In the National League East, the New York Mets’ lineup looks excellent. Besides the Yankees, the Mets could have the best lineup in all of baseball. Their starting pitching is the giant question mark. The pitchers are very old, I mean Roger Clemens old, and since there’s only one Roger Clemens, I don’t see them taking over the “ace” role in the rotation. They do have John Maine who can help the rotation a lot. Also, they have good pitching prospects in Phillip Humber and Mike Pelfrey can help out with pitching struggles early on. The 2007 Mets remind me most of the 2006 Yankees; a great season and a disappointing early exit in the playoffs.

The Atlanta Braves look to come back to glory after losing the NL East title last season for the first time in 11 seasons. They can do it with a good lineup including Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Jeff Francoeur. Starting pitchers John Smoltz and Chuck James can help out a lot as well. Their bullpen and closer will not disappoint either.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten better over the past year. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are both potential MVP candidates and their starting pitching has improved with Brett Myers maturing and the signing of Freddy Garcia. Wes Helms is a player to watch as he hit a quiet .329 last season. I like this team but I don’t see them contending with the Mets. Ryan Howard’s slumping spring training this year is also something to pay attention to. Yes, I know its just spring training and its not a big deal, except Howard is making it a big deal with can hurt his mental state at the plate.

The Florida Marlins had an excellent second half of the season last season. Their horrendous first half prevented them from reaching the postseason however. Their lineup and rotation is good and the only thing that’s preventing them from becoming a lock is their horrible bullpen. This can be fixed however if pitcher Matt Lindstrom turns out to perform well (he has never played in the big leagues before). Also pitcher Josh Johnson can help out a great deal when he comes back from his injury in June. The Marlins are my surprise special with a potential to finish as high as second in the East.

The Washington Nationals are also a team to be discussed. Not because of their ability to contend with their division but because of their ability to contend with history. That’s right, place your bets now; How many games will the Nationals lose this year? The single season record was set by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders who finished their season 20-134. I don’t believe the Nationals can lose more games with their team batting average at .265 and their team earned runs average at 6.24 but I have my money at 121 losses this season.

In the NL Central, the defending World Series champions St. Louis Cardinals, maintain their core batting lineup. It’s their rotation which bothers me. They lost Jared Weaver and Jeff Suppan in the off-season and replaced them with former bullpen pitchers Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper. This creates a huge question mark along with closer Jason Isringhausen coming off an injury.

The Houston Astros added the big bat of Carlos Lee which will greatly improve their lineup along with Lance Berkman. I actually have Berkman as my MVP runner-up. Having said that, they don’t seem to have enough hitters but that didn’t stop them in 2005, why should it stop them this season? Plus they have a potential big bat in Luke Scott and prospect Hunter Pence is a future all star. Their starting pitching is great with Roy Oswalt, Jason Jennings, and Woody Williams. I see this team contending early on which will convince Roger Clemens to stay an Astro this season.

The Chicago Cubs were the busiest team this off-season. They have beefed up their lineup tremendously and their rotation is pretty good too. I see Ted Lilly helping out a lot even though his ERA last season was over four. I’ll tell you why, he pitched in the AL East last season; plus everyone knows that pitching in the NL is a lot easier than in the AL. Starting pitcher Rich Hill is a question mark but he does look promising. Mark Prior could help out as well if he can stay healthy for once in his life. They will have to spend a few more dollars picking up a closer before the deadline because closer Ryan Dempster is not going to cut it.

The Milwaukee Brewers is a team I have been mulling over a lot. They are a young team with great potential batters. They also have Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Capuano in their rotation. The fact that the bullpen is mediocre and their batters are young made me decide not to have them moving onto the postseason this year but I do look forward to watching them 2008.

In the west, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to be favorites. Their lineup is good along with their rotation which now includes Jason Schmidt. Their bullpen and closer is phenomenal which can bail out starting pitchers that will struggle.

The San Diego Padres have a great rotation. Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and Clay Hensley will provide much needed help due to the fact that they don’t have a lot of great batters besides Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Bard. Their bullpen and closer are great too.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a good lineup along with 2006 Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. The problem is they ONLY have Webb. This spells trouble for their rotation and their closer is awful as well.

To round out the year, I have the New York Yankees defeating the Houston Astros, 4-1, in the World Series including a game where long-time friends, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens square off against each other.

As for individual awards, the AL MVP will go to Derek Jeter for two simple reasons. One, he was robbed last season for the award which I think he’s secretly pissed off about and two, it will be manager Joe Torre’s last season with the Yankees and I know that Jeter has a lot of love for Torre causing him to perform greater than he has ever before. In the NL, I was originally leaning toward Albert Pujols, but the award must go to a playoff contender and I don’t see the Cardinals in the postseason so I’m giving it to Derrek Lee who almost won the award two seasons ago. Last season, injuries kept him out but I see a huge comeback on the horizon. Johan Santana will runaway with the AL Cy Young and in the NL, I see Roy Oswalt taking the Cy Young due to his increasing performance every season. The AL Rookie of the Year will be Tampa Bay Devil Ray outfielder Delmon Young and in the NL, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Homer Bailey, perhaps the best pitching prospect besides Philip Hughes, will grab the award.

Recap:

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Cleveland Indians

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Houston Astros
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Chicago Cubs

World Series: New York Yankees over Houston Astros, 4-1

AL MVP: Derek Jeter
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL ROY: Delmon Young

NL MVP: Derrek Lee
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
NL ROY: Homer Bailey

Source: Baseball-Reference.com
Photos: MLB.com

Sports Moment of the Week

Michael Phelps, an American swimmer, had perhaps the greatest week ever for an athlete as he finished an eight-day event winning a record seven gold medals and breaking five world records.