Useless NFL Predictions Surely Changing Mid-Season: AFC

After a one week hiatus due to school, my NFL predications continue with the AFC. As mentioned last time, it will be somewhat whacky or as I would like to call it, “ballsy”, so brace yourself for a make-your-face-red-from-frustration feeling.

AFC East:

New England Patriots: 14-2, 4-2
Key Wins: San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore
Key Losses: @New York/A, @Miami

Miami Dolphins: 10-6, 4-2
Key Wins: Dallas, New England, @Philadelphia
Key Losses: @New York/A, @Houston, New York/N

New York Jets: 8-8, 3-3
Key Wins: New England, Miami, Pittsburgh
Key Losses: @Buffalo, Kansas City

Buffalo Bills: 4-12, 1-5
Key Wins: @Pittsburgh, New York/A, Cincinnati
Key Losses: Denver, @Cleveland, New York/N

There’s no arguing that the New England Patriots are the best team in the league. They are loaded all over due to off-season acquisitions and should not lose too many games. Although they have a tough schedule, look for them to cruise through the season without too many problems.

Surprise, surprise… The Miami Dolphins are going to the playoffs! After a disappointing season despite a great defense (ranked fourth), the Dolphins are in for a great year. With the Ricky Williams and Nick Saban problems behind them, the team will look to take off this year. Another interesting statistic: the first full year the last two “washed up” veteran quarterbacks played on their new teams (Mark Brunell and Steve McNair), those teams went onto the playoffs; expect that to happen to Trent Green.

As far as the Jets are concerned, with a tough schedule ahead of them, I don’t like them that much this year. And with the Bills, I’m never sold on them, especially this year as they pulled a “Boston Celtics” and dumped a good portion of their team in the off-season.

AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens: 12-4, 4-2
Key Wins: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, @Seattle
Key Losses: @Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7, 4-2
Key Wins: Miami, Jacksonville, @Baltimore
Key Losses: Buffalo, San Francisco, Cleveland

Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8, 3-3
Key Wins: Baltimore, @Seattle, St. Louis
Key Losses: @Kansas City, @Buffalo, Arizona

Cleveland Browns: 3-13, 1-5
Key Wins: @Pittsburgh, @Arizona
Key Losses: @Oakland, Houston, San Francisco

The Baltimore Ravens were great last year and that was without a good running game (ranked 25th). The passing game was pretty good despite popular opinion, ranked 11th in the league. With the acquisition of Willis McGahee and the most powerful defense in the league, look for the Ravens to have an outstanding year.

Between the Steelers and the Bengals, the season is pretty much a toss up. It can go either way which will probably end up with both teams having mediocre seasons. The Steelers actually had a great second half last season winning 6 of their last 8 games. However, during this stretch, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger still didn’t play like a Super Bowl quarterback throwing 11 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions; one has to wonder whether he will return to form this season. The Bengals have one of the best offenses in the league and they will score plenty this season, but so will opposing teams. Their defense was ranked 30th in the league last season and they did little to improve it this season. I don’t think they can outscore their opponents into the playoffs.

As far as the Browns go, they’re in a rebuilding phase that will continue into upcoming seasons. They will be a threat in the future, especially with Brady Quinn as their eventual starter; they just need a few years to grab key pieces and for younger guys to mature.

AFC South:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 11-5, 4-2
Key Wins: @New Orleans, San Diego, @Indianapolis
Key Losses: Carolina, @Houston

Indianapolis Colts: 10-6, 3-3
Key Wins: New Orleans, Denver, @Jacksonville
Key Losses: @Tennessee, @Houston, New England

Houston Texans: 6-10, 3-3
Key Wins: Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville
Key Losses: @Atlanta, @Oakland, @Tennessee

Tennessee Titans: 4-12, 2-4
Key Wins: Indianapolis, Houston
Key Losses: @Jacksonville, @Tampa Bay, @Houston

Another surprise here as the Indianapolis Colts fall off the AFC South throne. Their Super Bowl journey wasn’t very convincing besides a great victory against New England; the last time that happened was two years ago and the Steelers went onto miss the playoffs. I’m not prepared to count the Colts out of the playoffs, but they will certainly take a step back as they lost many key pieces on defense in the off-season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars look better than ever this season propelling them to win the AFC South. With the second best defense in the league and a great young running-back in Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars are a real threat this season. The weak piece: the passing (ranked 24th last season); and with Byron Leftwich gone and head coach Jack Del Rio’s full confidence in David Garrard, look for him to have a career year. Garrard’s problems in the past were throwing into double coverage’s; with experience and a great group of mature wide receivers, look for Garrard to keep this problem minimal. Also, the threat of Jones-Drew will keep safeties off of receivers and in the box.

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans will not have great years despite promising quarterbacks. The Titans’ defense is horrible and they have no receiving core. That coupled with Vince Young’s inevitable injury due to the Madden Jinx will have them finish last in the division. The Texans made good acquisitions in the off-season, but they neglected to solve their main problem, the offensive line and running game; and no, Ahman Green and Ron Dayne do not count as solutions.

AFC West:

San Diego Chargers: 12-4, 5-1
Key Wins: Chicago, Indianapolis, Baltimore
Key Losses: Detroit, Denver

Denver Broncos: 9-7, 3-3
Key Wins: Jacksonville, @Chicago, @San Diego
Key Losses: @Detroit, @Kansas City, Kansas City, Minnesota

Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8, 3-3
Key Wins: Cincinnati, Denver, @Denver
Key Losses: @Oakland, Green Bay, @Detroit

Oakland Raiders: 4-12, 1-5
Key Wins: Kansas City, Houston
Key Losses: Detroit, @Kansas City, @Green Bay

A lot of people are critical of San Diego’s new head coach, Norv Turner. If you look at his history, you really can’t complain too much. Turner has never made a team worse than they were before he got the job. In fact, with the Washington Redskins, he actually made them better for a short while. In 1993, the year before Turner arrived, the Redskins were 4-12. Three years into the job, the Redskins were 9-7; six years into the job, the Redskins were 10-6 and playoff bound. With Oakland, he again didn’t make the team any worse than they were prior to his arrival; he just failed to make them better. So what exactly makes everyone think he’s going to cause the crash of the San Diego franchise? San Diego will be fine with Turner, finishing the season as one of the strongest teams in the league.

The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs are another Steelers/Bengals situation. Although both teams look promising with new key additions, the season could sway either way for both teams. Denver’s running game is the thing to watch this season with the acquisition of Travis Henry. It will be interesting if Denver’s running strategy will falter due to the offensive line under close watch for illegal blocking this season; something that was made the Denver running game unlike anything else in the league. The Chiefs have a great but old quarterback in Damon Huard leading the way. Larry Johnson’s productivity this year is a huge question mark for me as he had 416 rushing attempts last season. You really have to think long and hard whether he will be able to carry that load for two consecutive seasons. I’m more pessimistic about this than others.

The Oakland Raiders are another team that played terrible last year, went into the off-season looking to improve, and then failed to upgrade at their weakest area: their offensive line. Daunte Culpepper is a perfect fit in Oakland as he will tutor Oakland’s future quarterback, JaMarcus Russell. However, this won’t translate into wins for the team this season.

Stayed tuned for my playoff predictions next week. Yes, I know they will be ready after the season starts, but I already have my teams selected as far as who makes the postseason. One weekend of football doesn’t change Super Bowl predictions.

Sports Moment of the Week

Division I-AA Appalachian State upset #5 ranked Michigan on Saturday 34-32. The game came down to one last play when all Michigan had to do was kick a game-ending 37-yard field goal. Corey Lynch of App. St. blocked the field goal securing the victory.