It’s that time of year; the NFL Preseason is well underway and everyone starts making their predictions about who will be this year’s champions, surprises, and disappointments. Of course, 98% of these predictions end up totally wrong and change mid-season after progress is shown and injuries take place. I’m no different; and with that point, I present my NFC predictions surely to change mid-season.
NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6, 4-2
Key Wins: @Chicago, @Philadelphia
Key Losses: St. Louis, New England, Washington
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6, 3-3
Key Wins: Seattle, @Dallas, @New Orleans
Key Losses: Washington, @New York/N
Washington Redskins: 8-8, 3-3
Key Wins: @Philadelphia, @Dallas, Chicago
Key Losses: @Green Bay, @Tampa Bay, Buffalo
New York Giants: 6-10, 2-4
Key Wins: Green Bay, Philadelphia
Key Losses: New York/A, San Francisco, Minnesota
The NFC East should see a significant shake up this year. There are a significant amount of roster changes that will affect how each team will play. With the Cowboys, QB Tony Romo and head coach Wade Phillips took over the team; the Eagles, RB Brian Westbrook will reshape the entire Eagles offense; the Redskins, the era of QB Jason Campbell reigns; the Giants, the absence of RB, and once team leader, Tiki Barber will change the entire atmosphere of the team.
The battle to concentrate on in this division is between the bitter rivals of Dallas and Philadelphia. Both are very strong well rounded teams that have similar schedules. Each team will take one victory from another and lose stupid games that will keep the race going until the very last week. Of course this is all assuming QB Donovan McNabb stays healthy.
I really like the Redskins’ defense despite their embarrassing 31st ranking. I think the defense will bounce back in a big way keeping the Redskins in the race for a good portion of the season. Jason Campbell will mature but play just good enough to not lose games for the team. As far as the Giants go, I think this is no doubt head coach Tom Coughlin’s last year. After a projected 4-2 start, the Giants will tire under Coughlin’s military-style practices and lose 8 of the 10 remaining games.
NFC North:
Chicago Bears: 9-7, 5-1
Key Wins: Kansas City, @Philadelphia
Key Losses: @Seattle, @Washington, @Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings: 6-10, 3-3
Key Wins: @Green Bay, @San Francisco, Chicago
Key Losses: @Detroit, Green Bay, Washington
Green Bay Packers: 6-10, 3-3
Key Wins: @Kansas City, Detroit
Key Losses: Minnesota, @Chicago
Detroit Lions: 5-11, 1-5
Key Wins: Denver, @San Diego, Kansas City
Key Losses: Chicago, Tampa Bay, @Arizona
This year the Chicago Bears should endlessly be thanking the Seattle Seahawks for breaking the trend of playoff absences following a Super Bowl loss. The Bears will win the division due to playing in the weakest division in football, however they will finish with a very mediocre record.
Despite it being the weakest division, I do like the rest of the teams as far as their futures go. I love the Vikings defense (8th ranked overall) as well as their running-back tandem of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson. Although I do have the Vikings losing their first 8 games to become the laughing stock of the league before QB Tarvaris Jackson becomes comfortable leading the game in his first year starting in the NFL. I think he will learn a lot about football this year and we will learn a lot about him and his future with the Vikings.
With the Packers, I like their defense as well which seems to be improving year after year. Also, QB Aaron Rodgers has been sitting on the bench observing the game for 3 years. After Favre retires this season due to a bad year, I think Rodgers will shine. As far as the Lions are concerned, their entire offense is great with the exception of a quarterback; they have a great running-back tandem of Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell as well as an excellent receiving core. I believe they really need to consider drafting a quarterback as their final piece in order to turn their franchise around. I see Brian Brohm as their future, but who knows with Matt Millen running the show.
NFC South:
New Orleans Saints: 11-5, 5-1
Key Wins: Carolina, @Seattle, @Chicago
Key Losses: @Indianapolis, St. Louis
Carolina Panthers: 10-6, 4-2
Key Wins: @Arizona, New Orleans, @Jacksonville
Key Losses: Houston, Tampa Bay, @New Orleans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9, 2-4
Key Wins: St. Louis, @Carolina
Key Losses: Arizona, Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons: 5-11, 1-5
Key Wins: @Minnesota, San Francisco
Key Losses: @Tennessee, New York/N
The Saints were incredible last year. With many inexperienced players and an inexperience coach, they managed to reach the NFC Conference Championship game losing to the Chicago Bears. On the offensive side of the ball, there is no visible weakness present. On the defensive side of the ball, they’ve been great as well contrary to popular belief. They were ranked 11th in total defense and 3rd in passing defense. Their running defense needs to improve, but with off-season additions to beef up the depth of the box, they should do well too.
The thing working against the Saints is a tough schedule and the emergence of the Carolina Panthers. The Saints must face Indianapolis, Carolina, Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Chicago. The thing is, the Panthers have an equally tough schedule against similar opponents. With the Panthers, the season will start terrible. They will lose 4 of their first 5 games, provoking head coach Rick Fox to make the change at quarterback. David Carr will lead the team to win 8 of their last 9 games, making the playoffs.
Tampa Bay and Atlanta will not play much of a factor as both teams have question marks all over the team. Everyone knows the deal with Atlanta, but with Tampa Bay, the defense is consistently getting worse every year with no significant improvements, and the quarterback situation is up in the air. While I like Jeff Garcia in head coach Jon Gruden’s system, if mistakes are made, the trigger will be pulled to get a new guy in. This means constant pressure to perform well by Garcia. On top of all that, RB Carnell “Ford” Williams, was a disappointment last year. Whether he will bounce back is one of the many questions regarding the Buccaneers.
NFC West:
St. Louis Rams: 9-7, 3-3
Key Wins: @Dallas, @New Orleans, @San Francisco, Seattle
Key Losses: @Tampa Bay, Arizona, @Cincinnati
San Francisco 49ers: 8-8, 4-2
Key Wins: @St. Louis, @Pittsburgh, Seattle, @Seattle
Key Losses: Arizona, @Atlanta, St. Louis
Seattle Seahawks: 8-8, 2-4
Key Wins: Chicago, @Carolina
Key Losses: @San Francisco, San Francisco, Arizona, Baltimore
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10, 3-3
Key Wins: @San Francisco, @Cincinnati, @Seattle
Key Losses: @Washington, Cleveland, Atlanta
Welcome to the toughest division in the NFL. The NFC West is going to be another gigantic battle just like last season. This time, the results will come out different. I really like the Rams this year and let me begin by saying why before I say why the Seahawks won’t win. The Rams have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Marc Bulger is a highly underrated QB that is perhaps one of the most if not THE most accurate QB in the NFL. Here are some stats: 7th in the league in QB rating, 4th in TD passes, 4th in least interceptions thrown (The three guys ahead of him didn’t play full seasons [Brunell, McNabb, & Huard]), and 3rd in passing yards. No wonder he got a huge $65 million contract. That, coupled with one of the best receiving tandems in the league as well as one of the best running-backs in the league makes this offense almost unstoppable. The reason why they don’t runaway with the division is mainly due to their 23rd ranked defense and one of the tougher schedules in the NFL playing against the Panthers, 49ers, Cowboys, Ravens, Seahawks, Saints, Bengals, and Steelers.
Now for the reasons that the Seahawks will not win the division. QB Matt Hasselbeck is one of the more overrated quarterbacks in the league. At 30 years old, he finished 2006 with a disappointing 76 QB Rating, 19th in the league. He’s now one year older, one year slower, and one year less aware of what’s going on around him. You really think he’s going to do a good job surveying the field with 4 potential WR’s to throw to? Didn’t work too well for him last year: 8th most INT’s thrown, 15, while missing 4 games. RB Shaun Alexander is also 31 this year, and is on the decline of his 2005 peak year. Because he was injured thanks to the Madden Jinx, and was out for 6 games, doesn’t make it fair to judge him on his yards and TD totals (896 yards, 7 TD’s). What is fair, is judging him on his average yards per carry, a horrific 3.6 average, 41st in the NFL, more importantly, LAST! He can’t be that bad this year, but you can count on him not being good enough to lead the team to the NFC West title. Here’s a bonus reason: 19th defensively, but more importantly 22nd in rushing yards allowed. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and James/Arrington tandem anyone?
As for the 49ers and the Cardinals, these are two teams that I really like this year due to great offenses. For the 49ers, Alex Smith has significantly gotten better (2005: 40.8 QB Rating, 1-11 TD-INT ratio; 2006: 74.8 QB Rating, 1-1 TD-INT ratio). Also Frank Gore is going to be huge in that division partially due to the division’s horrible rushing defense. I don’t like the move of picking up Nate Clements in the off-season. I think he’s overrated and a flashy CB that tries to grab the interception rather than knocking the ball down when the game is on the line which ultimately results in him tipping the ball into the opposing receiver’s hands (see Buffalo-Jacksonville game in 2006). With the Cardinals, I also love Matt Leinart and the best WR tandem in the league with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Also, don’t sleep on RB J.J. Arrington; with Edgerrin James suffering year after year, look for Arrington to shine against the rushing defenses of the AFC West.
Stayed tuned next week for the more ballsy-er and controversial AFC predictions, as well as Super Bowl predictions.
Sports Moment of the Week
Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Webb extended his scoreless inning streaks on Friday to 42 inning pitching without an earned run against the Atlanta Braves. Friday was also Webb's third consecutive complete game pitched.
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